Defence AI is raising at software multiples now

Shield AI raised $1.5 billion within a $2.25 billion package at a $12.7 billion valuation, up 140% in a year, against projected 2026 revenue above $540 million. The multiple is a software multiple applied to a company that ships hardware.

Shield AI secured $1.5 billion in Series G funding as part of a broader $2.25 billion capital package, at a $12.7 billion valuation — up 140% in a year. The company projects more than $540 million in 2026 revenue, roughly 80% year-on-year growth.

Run the arithmetic and the interesting thing appears. Roughly 23× forward revenue, for a company whose product involves airframes, flight certification and defence procurement cycles. Historically, hardware-inclusive defence businesses have been valued on earnings and backlog, at multiples in the low single digits to low teens.

The investors are pricing it as an autonomy software company that happens to ship hardware, rather than a hardware company with software in it. That may well be correct — the durable asset in autonomous flight is the stack, not the airframe — but it is a bet on which layer captures the value, and defence procurement has historically been unkind to that bet.

The wider frame: global AI venture investment is on track to exceed $120 billion for full-year 2026, more than double 2024 and nearly 40% above 2025. In a market at that temperature, a 140% step-up in twelve months is not an outlier, which is itself worth noticing.

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